Can The US Afford a Military Conflict With Pakistan?

In face of the latest and unprecendated downturn in US-Pakistan relations,Pakistan Army can at the very least boast the kind of popular support that PresidentObama can only dream of.

General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani is the man of the moment, fast turning into a national hero by default, thanks to the hyperbole emanating from Washington. On the other hand President Obama resembles the captain of a ship that is sinking fast.

Under pressure due to a faltering economy and suffering humiliation in Afghanistan, the Obama administration has kicked off a noisy blame game pointing fingers at Pakistan for America’s failures in what is known as the ‘Graveyard of Empires’. Attacks on what were thought to be some of the most secure targets in Kabul have blown the cover of America’s false claims. With the Afghan Taliban in control of over 80% of Afghan territory and now knocking on the doors of Kabul, one can be forgiven for thinking that things could not get any worse for the American occupying forces. Because it looks that they will.

Around 75% of American and NATO military supplies pass through Pakistan. Shutting off this vital lifeline alone would spell disaster for the American and Nato forces stationed in Afghanistan.

Pakistan has a highly trained army which, unlike the Iraqi forces, are itching to hammer the Americans. It has a fairly strong air force that is, at the very least, capable of downing a good few US bombers. And it also has a modest navy that is quite capable of causing damage.

Around 200,000 US, NATO and Afghan forces that are incapable of fighting against the Haqqani insurgents, numbered between 5000 to 10,000 at most, will prove no match for Pakistan’s highly trained army consisting of around 600,000 active troops and another 550,000 reserves. Add to that the million strong tribals residing on the Pak Afghan border and armed to the teeth, who have pledged support to Pakistan’s armed forces in the event of a direct confrontation with US/NATO forces. Last but not the least are the Jihadi organisation active in Indian Occupied Kashmir, with a strength of around another 100,000.

Pakistan is quite capable of unleashing hell on the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan if it decides to. And that is without even taking into account Pakistan’s fast growing nuclear arsenal and its advanced missile systems that are capable of hitting any US target within a 3,500 mile radius. Already under heavy fire from a rag tag poorly equipped and trained force of the Afghan Taliban, the US and NATO forces will prove easy pickings for Pakistan army’s elite commandos. Its missileswill level US bases and military installations to the ground.

President Obama, even in his wildest dreams, cannot dare to enter a military conflict with Pakistan at this moment in time. And therefore the the US tantrums seem nothing more than an immature bluff, without taking into account the geopolitical implications as well as the consequences it will have to face in Afghanistan, if it dares violate Pakistan military’s ‘red lines’.

The best they can hope to do is isolate Pakistan internationally declaring it a pariah state that sponsors terror, and enforce economic sanctions. Then again, if the Pakistani intelligence agencies and armed forces are indeed secretly helping the Afghan Taliban under the pretence of being a front line ally, imagine the damage they would be able to do if declared the enemy.      (Taken from : www.pakalertpress.com)                                     

Security Report

FAISALABAD: A US security official’s attempt to enter a ‘sensitive’ area of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) in Faisalabad was foiled by security agencies, who forced him to return after a heated scene at the institution’s gate.
Reports claim that on Wednesday, Mr. Jaison Berger, Security Officer of the US Consulate Lahore, visited Faisalabad to check and inspect security arrangements for a US delegation’s scheduled visit to the city on September 13.
While visiting different areas of the city, Berger reached the National Institute for Bio­technology and Genetic Engineering (NIBGE), a centre of nuclear research working under the direct command of the PAEC.
Police staff and officials on duty stopped the US national at the gate after receiving orders from their superiors at a provincial and national level. The officials requested him to steer clear of the area which was not included in the US delegation’s scheduled plan but Berger refused to acquiesce.
After a heated debate between the US official and security agencies including NIBGE commandos, Berger was forced to leave the site. Following the incident, the official abruptly cut short his visit and headed for Lahore.
Following the tense encounter, sensitive agency personnel and Faisalabad police took up the matter seriously and sent SOS reports to officials concerned about Berger’s attempt to force entry.

Top-secret meeting: FBI, police map out plan for American’s recovery

Express Tribune
LAHORE: A white Land Cruiser, with a police escort in tow, arrived at the Crime Investigation Agency (CIA) centre in Lahore at about 1:40 pm on Wednesday. The four-wheel drive was transporting officials of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) who were there for a meeting regarding American aid expert Warren Weinstein’s abduction, The Express Tribune has learnt.

The meeting between the investigation agencies went on for approximately two hours. No unauthorised persons were allowed to enter the CIA centre in the presence of FBI officials, although some intelligence agency officials visited the centre while the meeting was ongoing.

Three FBI personnel shared on Wednesday all the information they had gathered relating to Weinstein’s abduction with the police at the CIA centre in Model Town.
(Read: The kidnapped American)
However, after the meeting, police officials refused to disclose the names or ranks of the FBI officials, citing security reasons.
Following Weinstein’s abduction, the police and intelligence agencies along with the Model Town security personnel have started keeping a strict check on foreigners residing in the city.
The police have detained two suspects in connection with the abduction of the US citizen, while the FBI and Pakistani investigation agencies have gathered some evidence from Weinstein’s house, sources familiar with the matter said.
Weinstein’s house has been sealed off by the police, while Model Town security personnel have collected the data of other foreigners living in the same locality and issued directions for them to stay in contact with the area police station regarding their movement.

Three policemen have been deployed at Weinstein’s residence and no one is allowed to visit the crime scene. The three policemen are working under the assistant sub inspector of the local police station and have received strict orders about not letting anyone enter the house.
A cell phone, laptop and other items belonging to Weinstein, who was working as country director for JE Austin Associates, have been sent to the forensics lab and for a technical analysis, an investigator told The Express Tribune on condition of anonymity.
Investigators claim they have collected the call data record of Weinstein’s security guards, driver and other staff, as well as of the abducted American, and are examining the records.

According to the data compiled by the Model Town security, there are at least 13 more houses where foreigners are residing. According to the list which is also available with The Express Tribune, of the 13 houses/offices, seven are being occupied by Chinese citizens, one is being used by a Scotland citizen, three are in the use of Thai citizens, one is occupied by an Afghan citizen, one by a Polish citizen and one by a citizen of the Philippines.

US believe China examined Stealth Copter crashed in OBL Operation

In the days after the raid that killed Osama bin Laden, Pakistan’s intelligence service probably allowed Chinese military engineers to examine the wreckage of a stealth American helicopter that crashed during the operation, according to American officials and others familiar with the classified intelligence assessments, The New York Times reported on Monday.
Such cooperation with China would be provocative, providing further evidence of the depths of Pakistan’s anger over the Bin Laden raid, which was carried out without Pakistan’s approval. The operation, conducted in early May, also set off an escalating tit-for-tat scuffle between American and Pakistani spies.

American spy agencies have concluded that it is likely that Chinese engineers, at the invitation of Pakistani intelligence operatives, took detailed photographs of the severed tail of the Black Hawk helicopter equipped with classified technology designed to elude radar, the officials said. The members of the Navy Seals team who conducted the raid had tried to destroy the helicopter after it crashed at Bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad, but the tail section of the aircraft remained largely intact.

American officials cautioned that they did not yet have definitive proof that the Chinese were allowed to visit to Abbottabad. They said that Pakistani officials had denied that they showed the advanced helicopter technology to other foreign governments. One military official said Sunday that Pakistani officials had been directly confronted about the American intelligence.
One person with knowledge of the intelligence assessments said that the American case was based mostly on intercepted conversations in which Pakistani officials discussed inviting the Chinese to the crash site. He characterized intelligence officials as being “certain” that Chinese engineers were able to photograph the helicopter and even walk away with samples of the wreckage. The tail has been shipped back to the United States, according to American officials.
Several Pakistani officials reached on Sunday declined to comment. The American assessments were disclosed Sunday by The Financial Times. The newspaper cited Pakistani officials who denied the accusations.

Pakistan’s anger about the Bin Laden operation was so intense that officials in Islamabad, the capital, hinted in news reports in May that they might allow the Chinese to see the helicopter wreckage, but it was unclear at the time whether Pakistan’s government might follow through on the veiled threats. Pakistani officials also made a high-profile trip to Beijing shortly after the Abbottabad raid, part of a not-so-subtle campaign to show the strength of Pakistan’s alliance with China amid faltering relations between Washington and Islamabad.

The relationship between the spy services began fraying in the months before the Bin Laden raid, after a C.I.A. contractor was charged with murder and jailed in Lahore. The contractor, Raymond A. Davis, killed two men at a crowded traffic stop in Lahore in January, in what American officials described as an act of self-defense after the two men tried to rob Mr. Davis.
Mr. Davis was eventually released from jail, but American relations with Pakistan declined steadily in subsequent weeks and sank even lower after the Bin Laden raid.
However, amid the recriminations and threats by members of Congress to cut all military aid to Pakistan, some senior members of the Obama administration have tried to dial back tensions before they do permanent damage to the shaky alliance.

Despite the headaches of an alliance marked by mutual distrust and competing agendas, the officials argue, the prospect of Washington permanently severing ties with a nuclear-armed country as volatile as Pakistan would be far more dangerous.

Pakistan Navy ships 'Shamsheer' and 'Nasr' on a goodwill visit to Sri Lanka

ISLAMABAD, Aug 9 (APP): Pakistan Navy Task Group comprising PNS Sword Class Frigate PN Ship Shamsheer and Combat Support Fleet Tanker PN Ship Nasr reached Colombo on Tuesday on a three-day visit as part of a cruise to enhance defense relations and goodwill between two countries.

On arrival at Colombo, the Ship’s band, dressed up in traditional naval uniform, presented melodious tunes as it sailed into Colombo Harbour. The crew will participate in various events planned during the stay in Colombo, says a message received here on Tuesday.

PNS Shamsheer is a 3000 tones frontline frigate of Pakistan Navy which has state of the art weapons and surveillance system.

Whereas PNS Nasr is a Combat Support ship which supports extended operations of Pakistan Navy.

Pakistan Navy Task Group is headed by Commodore Muhammad Amjad (SI (M) SBt, who is Commander of 18th Destroyer Squadron of Pakistan Navy. 

Such visits are part of regular exchange Port Calls between the two navies, which serve to bolster cooperation between the two countries.

Sri Lanka is an important regional country and Pakistan Navy regards cooperation with SLN (Sri Lankan Navy) as of paramount importance.

Pakistan Navy enjoys brotherly and cordial relations with Sri Lanka Navy in all professional fields.

The ship has also visited Colombo earlier January 2010 on a goodwill visit. The visit will open new avenues of bilateral cooperation between the two friendly navies and garner the existing strong bonds of friendship between the two countries.

Russia creates new mega-powerful Intercontinental ballistic missile

                                                                     

Russia's Defense Ministry reported about the progress in the domestic missile industry. First and foremost, the first missile regiment has been rearmed completely with state-of-the-art Yars mobile missile systems. Secondly, Russian engineers have developed Liner sea-based strategic missile. The new missile is said to be twice as more powerful as the Bulava missile, which had a number of failures during test-launches.

Officials from the ministry said that the first missile regiment armed with latest Yars missile complexes was on full duty. The complexes are equipped with RS-24 thermonuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles. The missile was developed by engineers of the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology under the guidance of academician Yuri Solomonov. The missile has been created with the use of technological solutions used in Topol-M systems, which significantly shortened the terms and costs of the production.

The new missile will strengthen the combat capacity of Russian missile troops, as well as the nuclear deterrence potential of Russian strategic nuclear forces. The RS-24 missile will replace the outdated RS-18 and RS-20 ballistic missiles as their service terms are drawing to an end. In the future, Yars and Topol-M missile systems will make the basis of the strike force of Russian missile troops.

The missiles are capable of breaking through any air defense system during the upcoming 15-20 years, Sergei Karakayev, the commander of the Russian missile troops said. This remark is especially important against the background of the current dispute between Moscow and Washington regarding the creation of the missile defense system in Europe.

The sea-based Liner strategic missile, the tests of which started successfully with the launch on May 20, is capable of carrying from nine to twelve warheads. Thus, Liner is more powerful than Bulava, specialists of Makeyev's State Missile Center said.

The Bulava missile can carry only six low power class warheads, whereas the Liner is capable of carrying 1.5-2 times more. Engineers also said that the Liner missile can be equipped with warheads of different power classes.

The Liner missile surpasses all modern solid-fuel strategic missiles of Britain, China, Russia, the USA and France. The military equipment of the missile (four medium power class warheads) is comparable to the US Trident-2 (also four warheads).

Sineva and Liner complexes will guarantee the existence of the group of 667BDRM project submarines for 35-40 years, i.e. till 2025-2030.

It is worthy of note that Russia's Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov approved the start of the serial production of Bulava missiles in the beginning of July. The missiles are to be deployed on board Yuri Dolgoruky submarines. The Yuri Dolgoruky sub performed a successful launch of the Bulava missile at the end of June. The Bulava will make the basis of the perspective group of strategic nuclear forces of Russia before 2040-2045.                              (reference from pravda.ru)

Production of 26 JF-17 thunder aircraft completed by PAF

Islamabad: During a period of two years the Pakistan Airforce(PAF) has successfully been able to manufacture 26 JF-17 Thunder aircraft at Pakistan Aeronautical complex Kamra so far. A senior memver of Special Public Accounts Committee (PAC) said that PAF has achieved the target of manufacturing JF-17 Thunder aircrafts in the country. The committee was informed that Pakistan had kicked off its serial production of the multiple jet fighter JF-17 Thunder in collaboration with the People’s Republic of China two years back. Secretary Defence Production Lt Gen (R) Shahid Iqbal told the committer that efforts are being made to replace the two lost P-3 Orion; anti-submarine and maritime surveillance aircraft. It was a huge success for the PAF to achieve such a big target of making its own aircrafts with in the country with the help of People’s Republic of China.